Serenity

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting): June revenue: ~$153M July: ~$214M August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year) Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly

tweeted Thu, Sep 3 · counted from Fri, Sep 4 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

There we go, $AVGO earnings call to clarify miss. Broadcom expects: FY27E: ~$115B (+100% growth) FY28E: ~$230B (+100%), think analysts were modeling ~$180B. Demand actually exceeds this outlook, and Broadcom will work to improve supply. This is way above street estimates,

tweeted Wed, Sep 2 · counted from Thu, Sep 3 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

I don’t want to play investor activism here: But I hope the recent crash sends a message to $SIVE what investor base + focus really matters (not Sweden, not wireless). As well as that they should fire whatever board member or executive gave into local media criticisms: And

tweeted Wed, Sep 2 · counted from Thu, Sep 3 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals. If you're curious about my take though: We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS,

tweeted Mon, Aug 31 · counted from Tue, Sep 1 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS

tweeted Mon, Aug 31 · counted from Tue, Sep 1 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027

tweeted Mon, Aug 31 · counted from Tue, Sep 1 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized. Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory. The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to: ~17 months of July

tweeted Mon, Aug 31 · counted from Tue, Sep 1 close

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth

tweeted Sun, Aug 30 · counted from Mon, Aug 31 close