Bought $PANW at $154 in April. It's now $371 and significantly overvalued on my numbers. The business is fine. The price isn't.
If I sell and buy back, tax means it has to fall about 25% before I'm even.
Options are pricing an 11% move on earnings.
Would you hold or trim?
Bought $NOW four times when everyone was bearish. None of them felt smart at the time.
But I'd done the analysis and published a blog before the first buy. That's the only reason I kept going.
Valuation tells you a stock is cheap. It doesn't tell you when the market will agree.
Flagged $CRM as undervalued in March. Bought around that time, but it kept falling. Added again in June.
It's up 13% pre-market after the earnings.
Early and wrong feel identical while
Bought $RDDT at $137 last month, right after earnings knocked it down. Up nearly 30% since, including 12% today on the S&P 500 inclusion. 🎉🎉
The drop was the opportunity. h
Why did I buy $RDDT?
Well, it beats almost every peer in its sector on almost every quality metric except valuation.
It's not cheap. It's just cheaper than it's been against its own history. So I bought when it dropped 22% on earnings last week.
NFA.DYOR
$PLTR gave me a big win this week. $APP took it straight back today, down nearly 20%.
The numbers were strong.
- Revenue +53%
- EBITDA +58%
- Net income +55%
- 84% margin
But expectations were stronger.
I'll keep holding. Red days happen. It's part of the game.
