$1,000 follows their calls into $923
Leonard@Leoskie_L大家以為 HBM 2028 年就會全面改用混合鍵合，其實第一個大量用的是台積電的邏輯晶片，HBM 可能要等到 2029 年以後。 SemiAnalysis 10/15 挖到一件事：ASML 在 2022/12 到 2024/11 之間，申請了 27 個鍵合相關的專利家族，大多是 die-to-wafer（D2W）。 先講清楚：ASML
Leonard@Leoskie_L大家以為 Lumentum 股價一年漲超過 400%，是因為雷射缺貨。缺貨是真的，但它執行長這次上 Fox 講的是另一件事：怎麼讓客戶走不掉。 Hurlston 對 Liz Claman 說：「我們讓客戶要走掉，變得困難很多。」 理由很實際。他說 Lumentum
0:47Leonard@Leoskie_L聽立委 @LIWEI_TWCapital 的話 不吃虧
LIWEI_TW Capital@LIWEI_TWCapitalTaiwan stocks are crashing across the board. Nothing to do but de-risk, cut leverage, and survive. No trade is worth your health. Especially with margin debt sitting at such extreme levels right now, even the slightest tremor could easily trigger a severe drawdown. July’s
Leonard@Leoskie_LExactly. And TSMC is acting like it. Last week it broke its own rule and added more 3nm capacity, a node most people call "last generation." Customers don't step down. They queue up. The bottleneck isn't demand for 2nm. It's that 3nm never got freed up.
LIWEI_TW Capital@LIWEI_TWCapitalForeign retail investors are completely missing one fundamental truth about leading-edge nodes: semiconductor node migration is a one-way street. So if customers have access to 2nm or 3nm, nobody is going to downgrade back to 8nm just to save a bit on wafer costs—the compute
Leonard@Leoskie_L今天早上 6:23 我寫，週末大家喊的「黑色星期一」沒有來，美股期貨只小漲 0.2%，但期貨小漲不代表警報解除，今天要看三件事：美股現貨開盤後 AI 股會不會又被賣，KOSPI 和台股能不能止跌，10 年債殖利率會不會再往 5.3% 衝。美股開盤一個半小時多了，可以回頭對答案。 第一題，AI
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter"Black Monday" update: The Nasdaq 100 has now added +$650 billion in market cap today. This puts the index up +1.6%, on track for its biggest daily gain since September 21st. Ignore the noise. Read our analysis below.
