$1,000 follows their calls into $916
- Win rate
- 30%
- Streak
- —
- Best call
- No call read in the last 30 days
Track record building
- Peak #256
- 4 ranked closes
- Longest streak 4
$1,000 follows their calls into $916
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204On distribution, the two labs pay very different tolls: Anthropic: pays its distributors > 47% of 2025 sales went via AWS and Google Cloud (11% in 2023) > The clouds keep c.16% of that: c.8% of total revenue, and falling OpenAI: pays Microsoft but will move to paying its
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204With the Anthropic IPO round the corner, two things look decisive for AI from here: > Distribution: OpenAI’s c.$70bn ARR was grossed up. On its own net basis it’s c.$50bn, and the $20bn gap is what the channel keeps. Anthropic books gross, paying c.16% on roughly half its sales.
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204This is why I am comfortable that memory demand is going to continue to grow at a faster rate than supply. I remain long Samsung Electronics.
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204Anthropic's Q3 came in at "only" +45% QoQ, down from +147% in Q2, and everyone is panicking that AI demand is topping out.They are missing the bigger picture. What looked like a clear two-horse race with Anthropic and OpenAI in the leand, is now a herd, and demand is spreading
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204Great take. My personal opinion is the ROI of capex is going to be very accretive any time now. See muse. I think it will unlock vast amounts of new revenue streams for meta. They will be able to dilute for capex if they want to. But first. Take debt when available.
Paul Enright@pmje73I think this recent volatility continues to reflect the misalignment in the product cycle and the capital cycle. The product cycle itself has gotten more complex not simpler due to the continued presence of multiple competing products and the shifting relevance of open and
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204And… HBM shortages give Samsung negotiating leverage. You want HBM? Then use my foundry. Samsung is trading cheaper, gaining share, has foundry upside.
Jukan@jukan05Samsung is my top pick among the big three memory makers. TSMC obviously can’t allocate much wafer capacity to NVHBM, as it also needs to manufacture Rubin and Rubin Ultra. Only Samsung, with its own foundry, can meet the excess demand for NVHBM.
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204Loads of mega bullish memory news coming out all of a sudden $DRAM
P Equity Research 📰@pequityresearchKeybanc: HP, Dell, and Google looking to extend LTAs for memory beyond 2030. Google is under discussions with memory providers to extended its 2030 LTAs for another five years to 2035. $GOOGL
