@warrenpies · ranked 2 of 2 scored days
#1
1up today
Not a single forecast above the "Waller line" of .25%.
Talked the Fed, NFP and AI with @LesliePicker and @carlquintanilla Link below...Enjoyed the conversation!
OIL Shanghai crude futures above Brent Crude for the first time since May. China's buyer strike has been the most important reason oil prices have remained subdued during the Iran War. It seems China is buying again now...
https://t.co/HMITKPms8o
Will the Fed hike in September?
This was as dovish as Waller could be. Historically, I have liked how Waller conducts himself on the FOMC. But, hinging policy decisions on one print is a sign of how much political pressure the committee is feeling.
Anthropic ARR up to $65 billion... Reminder: EXCESS* hyperscaler cloud revenue tracks closely with lab ARR. *Excess is the revenue above pre-AI trend growth.
HOUSING STARTS July single-family housing starts broke below 70k. This is the second lowest monthly print in the post-pandemic era. Only Nov 2022 has been weaker. Remember: SF housing employs 3X MF...This level of starts points to significant residential construction layoffs.
Even with the rise in A100 rental rates, availability still remains <50%…impressive
I spoke with @carlquintanilla and @contessabrewer this morning about our outlook on equities and the Fed…I enjoyed the conversation.
No one on the FOMC will say this explicitly, but there will be no stopping the momentum toward a hike if oil remains this high going into the September meeting. Dec oil <$1 from new highs. If oil is this high, there is no realistic CPI/PPI/NFP number that will stop a hike.
We noted the same thing. K3 time per completed task is significantly slower vs Opus 5 or GPT 5.6.