A negative earnings surprise from $NVDA is coming. The countdown has started. Earnings quality has been poor for the last five quarters, and this quarter was abysmal, as reflected in the evolution of Cash from Operations. Free Cash Flow going negative is highly probable.
🧵Hey Circular Financing bros, ammo for you:
1. The circlejerk is creating record paper revenues and profits for $NVDA, but it is not creating commensurate cash from operations.
2. NVDA's CFO has been less than net income for the last 5 Qs.
3. CFO is below the APR 25 level. 1/2
The housing construction and discretionary spending outlook looks bleak. People are holding back on building pools; HVAC upgrades and new installations are also bleak. Quite evident from the performance of $POOL and $WSO. POOL used to be a Buffett stock till January.
We are in the early innings of a major bull run in commodities. It started a few weeks ago, and confirmation is showing up. Look at copper stocks; my favorite copper play, $SCCO, is breaking out.
If you still don't have $GLD and $SLV, some exposure might be beneficial.
