I would still be very cautiously optimistic about semiconductor tariffs
Quite clear Trump admin wants to goose up investment beyond what they already got from TSMC. At the same time they have not been out there saying we are going to make Intel a 30-40% Foundry player. Nor
Couple bits from watching the segment on CNBC
1) Lutnick believes US is currently heading to 40% share (I disagree cuz look at TSMC's construction schedule. All the extra fabs from TSMC's recent CAPEX hike are in Taiwan) But even if USG isn't happy w/ TSMC. Just push harder on
The WSJ article, "The White House Made Fixing Intel Its Pet Project. It’s Working." Published in July about Intel and US Government is highly underrated. Posted Friday afternoon it missed the news cycle.
But now that we have Intel's capital raise and Commerce Department looking
It's going to be like Christmas morning when Intel announces Fab 37, Fab 47 and Fab 57 in Ohio
Along with Fab 72 in Arizona and Mod4 in Oregon
Can't get your tariff relief without domestic Foundry orders!
$INTC
TSMC monopoly... Blah blah only they can make chips
Oh wait Intel next year is adding tool capacity at HALF of TSMC ($20B Intel vs $40B TSMC) according to Morgan Stanley Research
At 2nm generation Intels 2027 capacity is 75k WSPM. That's like if Intel was a 40% customer on
The Investment Case for Intel at $90 per share
Intel’s financial turnaround has been quicker than anyone thought, and the CAPEX ramp is upon us, with unique opportunities as America’s only leading-edge manufacturer.
https://t.co/R4zn8RRJ5q$INTC
Harbour some doubts on this due to timeline (wouldn't SemiAnalysis leak this?)
But Intel is also last bastion of Optical supply that is untapped. (New Mexico Fab)
Intel is sorta unique in that they take InP material bond it to silicon 300mm wafers and then form integrated
I'm not selling Intel
Multiple times wallstreet has sold/shorted Intel and stock has had relative poor performance for a while before aggressive moves upward.
Summer 2025 and early 2026 come to mind. Lip-Bu at a Cisco event (Jan 26) hinted at massive customer demand for 18A,
