Vebjørn@VJNCapitalMy view on the AI cycle summarized: -> Main players negative FCF (hyperscalers) -> Debt/balance sheet funding next investments -> Debt carries worse economics than cash -> Larger ROI hurdle -> Reduced relative growth -> Lower relative growth + massive volume coming online =
Vebjørn@VJNCapitalCombined FCF for $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META is collapsing I started cutting my semiconductor exposure 2-3 months ago The thesis was simple: Hyperscaler FCF turns negative -> Buildout gets funded with cash and debt -> Every dollar now has an extra cost and an ROI hurdle -> Capex
